Chronicle of a forecast flood: exposure and vulnerability on the south-east coast of Spain

Abstract In recent years, floods have become one of the natural hazards that generate greatest economic and human losses on planet. As is well known, torrential rainfall events are triggering factor for flooding processes; nevertheless, it worth examining responsibility factor, such as urban development, in occurrence these potential disasters. To this end, observations obtained during different precipitation been analysed. The evolution development from growth number buildings was also examined. information has crossed with digital cartography flooded areas (National System Flood Zones Cartography, SNCZI Spanish acronym). results show last two extraordinary (December 2016 September 2019) occurred municipalities Los Alcázares San Javier (Region Murcia, SE Spain) exceeded 200 mm, quantified very high hourly intensities (> 50 mm/h). On other hand, constructed built-up area both increased notably, an between 1950 2019 1057 to 15,969 constructed, increasing 16.09 ha. 450.06 occupied. This real estate caused exposed reach 3840 a 10-year RP (return period) 5941 500-year RP. It can be concluded by indicating clear influence territorial transformation increase exposure generated flood events.